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As far as proposed scenarios and tax increases, likely you are correct, although I must admit McCain's health care proposal and its associated tax scheme will raise taxes on any user of the health care system. The question then is whether those in the lowest economic strata would be able to pay or not.
I also agree re: exemptions, the whole marginal tax rate structure ends up being a facade... 30 years ago, when the top marginal rate was at 70%, we didn't have folks rushing to move offshore, but we did have a lot more creative accounting and tax avoidance strategies... I don't see what the fuss is about changing the marginal rates... even if the top marginal rate were to go to 50% as it was in 85, there wont be a mass exodus of wealth going offshore esp with the deferment provisions now in effect, albeit there would be a multitude of unintended consequences.
A couple references... marginal tax rates by year, and tax demographic data.
http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php
http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/250.html